When is China going to get mRNA vaccines?
As far as I can tell, no major western outlets or forecasters of things are asking. With the seemingly deteriorating situation in Shanghai, a potential solution could be to approve an mRNA vaccine and begin distribution. Importing Pfizer or Moderna would be prudent, but even if the CCP insists on a homegrown version there is opportunity there as well. Both would be better.
If the Google Translation of this regulation from China’s NMPA is accurate, it’s possible that there is an avenue for a Chinese company to apply to begin distributing a Pfizer or Moderna vaccine (screenshot below). I would think that’s a high value proposition worth pursuing.
I searched major news outlets, Metaculus, and Polymarket and didn’t find any predictions or speculations on when this could be approved. So I asked the question on Metaculus.